Dear Mulugeta,

Thanks for the info, I reached out to the contacts included in the Humanitarian Response page to be added to the C&V WG mailing list if there's one.
I would be very interested in keeping up with the work of the WG, I cannot see the minutes of the meeting you mentioned here below on the HR page, do you know where they can be accessed?

Thanks,

Stefano

Thank you very much for this.
I work with one partner in Afghanistan and since the project directly benefits women with services (legal, health, some economic empowerment), I am afraid that the project will need to pivot towards activities that the Talibs would allow (health only, CVA perhaps) so we can continue supporting the organization\project.
I very much look forward to reading the minutes and thank you all sincerely for all the sharing happening in this platform as it helps me serve the partners better.

Best,
Lorna

Hi

I would also be interested in joining this discussion to see whether
MapAction can provide support to the mic group

Best

Liz

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Agreed

Regards,

David W. Anderson

Dear Federico,

Thanks for elaborating your contribution in the economic development of
Afghanistan. Currently I am also deployed in Afghanistan (working remotely)
for the economic recovery program and the current change has opened new
avenues and thought provoking discussions to contextualise the program
design (specially with Enabling Environment - Policies, Institutions and
Practices). It would be great if you could share some of your program
design and change management approaches, these will be helpful

Best regards

Aslam Khatti
Economic Recovery Coordinator
Danish Refugee Council - Afghanistan

On Mon, Aug 23, 2021 at 1:30 PM [Hidden email] <
[Hidden email]

Dear Thomas et al.,

Excellent discussion and lots of interesting stuff...

Just to a quick note to inform you all that the Afghanistan Cash and
Voucher Group [CVAWG] is a super active working group co-led by WFP and
DRC. We will have an ad-hoc working group meeting tomorrow to discuss the
below points and more:

- What are the main current challenges and risks for CVA operations in
the country?
- Is there any agency that scaled-up, scaled-down the CVA operations
recently? If yes, what are the emerging lessons /experience to share with
the wider CVA members?
- What are ongoing and planned assessments related to CVA, including
financial service providers capacity assessment, market monitoring, joint
needs assessments, etc.?
- What are key CVA-related advocacy points we would like to bring up
together with other clusters and working groups?
- Updates on AHF funding status and timeline

The meeting minutes will be shared afterward.

Best,

Mulugeta L.Handino (Ph.D).

“*Education is the passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to those
who prepare for it today*”. *Malcolm X.*

*Maganu Bareeda!!*

On Wed, 25 Aug 2021 at 15:39, [Hidden email] <
[Hidden email]

Dear Maha et All,
Good to see a discussion on this issue which will likely develop in the coming weeks.
Just to note that there is a Afghanistan Cash Working Co-chaired by DRC & WFP, and hosted by OCHA. All files online for this working group can be found at https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/afghanistan/cash-voucher

It is unclear if that group is currently active, but DRC is currently recruiting for a co-coordinator https://reliefweb.int/job/3761209/afghanistan-cash-and-voucher-working-group-co-coordinator

In truth I think what could be useful is for a group such as ACAPS etc to undertake an analysis of the current political/economic situation and provide analysis on potential scenarios related to the impact of humanitarian assistance moving forward.
But for me some key points to be examined, (based on experiences in Yemen) are;

- Scale of expected economic contraction?
Foreign Grants made up 75% of public spending with gov jobs providing 20% of employment, to what degree will the new gov be forced, (or want to,) to cut back the public sector and how fast?
28% of GDP by the old gov was spent on the army and police, (again mostly funded by grants) seems likely most of that spending and jobs related to it will not be continued into the new gov.
Loss of spending power and employment will likely cause a recession but could it also cause a long term economic depression?
-likely hood of currency depreciation?
Linked to above but also FX rates are based on trust in gov and gov fiscal policy. Is their a risk the new gov will print notes to pay salaries or even to introduce a new currency? (in 1996 the first act of the Taliban's Central Bank, was to declare the majority of notes in circulation not to be valid.)
Additionally if we do see a large population movement into Pakistan/Iran etc would that put pressure on the currency as demand for hard currency spikes?
- Impact of potential currency deprecation on price of basic goods?
Afghanistan is not self sufficient in food, it requires significant imports and in 2020 ran a trade deficit of 5.69 billion U.S. dollars, which was partially covered by the estimated 4.2 billion in official assistance and aid flows.
If the currency deprecates what will that mean to import amounts, and prices of basic items? How long would it take for those shocks to work though the supply chain?
-De-risking of counterpart backs
Afghanistan is not currently on a FATF blacklist which would limit international banking, but it could quickly be added, is that likely? What risk exist of derisking and how would that impact UN, and Humanitarian actors?
As the Yemen and Syria responses have shown in doesn’t matter if we use a hawala if we cannot move money into the country, or cannot move it with out the counterpart banking requiring detailed information on the final recipient.
For me these are some of the key issues that the humanitarian country team is likely going to need answers to as they reconsider the current humanitarian response plan, and what changes or additional resources may be required.

Would be interested in what other actors think on this?

Best
Thomas

Thomas Byrnes
Independent Consultant
Market Impact Ltd
www.marketimpact.org

Thank you all for your points.
Re. Karri suggestion, that’s exactly what I think we should do. To think how to use our tools in such circumstances, and to discuss what specific questions we need answers for, to help in select what responses to implement.

I was searching for rapid assessments that conducted after this escalation or any responses plans, in both Afghanistan and the hosting communities, but the majority of the resources provides statistics and description for the situation in general.
So if any one could help in answering the suggested questions or suggest resources, this could help. I will summarize the questions:
• What comes next for CVA and social protection in Afghanistan? And Do we need new ways to know the protection needs?
• Will donors accept Hawalla under the Talibs? If so, will donors allow it?
• What is the status of (non cash) electronic payment systems?
• What is the status of the cash working group (or equivalent) in-country, and how can we best link in to and support them?
• What tools should be used and how to adapt them with context?
• What response activities are most likely to come next?

Your suggestions all welcomed!

Regards,
Maha Hayek

Brilliant incites James.
Great to understand if new payments systems are evolving alongside the crisis- for instance how is Mobile Money and Cashless transactions evolving? Great for humanitarian actors to begin brainstorming on preparedness. Issues of Payments Mechanisms ( e.g Hawala versus Mobile Money, etc) and data protection also surfaces- and this is where strong models must be adapted or developed. Elite capture and CVA targeting in a conflict sensitive environment comes into play. Are we going to witness high levels of taxation? Is it possible to do a proper risk analysis without risking staff? A whole lot of questions surfacing now.

Kind regards

George Bete | Cash Relief, Technical Advisor
(East Africa, Yemen, Zimbabwe- Backstopping Asia)

International Rescue Committee
34 Greendale Avenue, Greendale, Harare, Zimbabwe
Skype betegeorge

Rescue.org
[IRC%20eSignature%20Graphic]

James,
These are really excellent points, and I feel like it is time for all of us
to bring out our favorite market systems tools and check-in on where/how
they apply. I fall firmly into the camp that *we have enough
tools/approaches already, but we must adapt them to each context....* and
yet even I feel a bit intimidated and overwhelmed by where to focus in this
moment.

I would predict that Hawala will still operate under Talib-rule, but you
made a key point there... which is whether donors will allow it. I think it
is worthwhile to start clarifying exactly this kind of specific question
around what response activities we think are most likely to come next. And
protection needs will have to be calculated in a new way. Because,
particularly in the short term, and economic support we provide may
actually make the recipients more vulnerable rather than less (given that
they are going door-to-door looking for collaborators).

In addition to Jame's question on hawala, what operational questions should
we be posing to donors? What market/livelihood tools should we be looking
at for adaptation?

Karri

On Tue, Aug 24, 2021 at 11:24 AM James Shepherd-Barron <

This thread is likely to be important for what comes next for CVA and
social protection in Afghanistan. For example, will donors accept Hawalla
under the Talibs? What is the status of (non cash) electronic payment
systems? What is the status of the cash working group (or equivalent)
in-country, and how can we best link in to and support them?

*James Shepherd-Barron MIH, PhD (hc)*
*Disaster Management Consultant* (*in case you're wondering, this means I
advise Governments, UN Agencies, International NGOs and the private sector
on the modelling and management of international disaster risk*)

I am also an Adjunct Professor at Fordham University and founder of *The
Aid Workers Union*, the support service for independent aid professionals (
https://www.aidworkersunion.org)

Mobile: +44 7785 70 34 90
Skype: james.s-b
Twitter: @jshepherdbarron
https://www.aidessentials.org

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Thank you all for your responses. I will be happy to discuss this issue, but my idea was to share some thoughts here so we can open the discussion for all interested members. So if anyone can share anything, it will be great.
Thanks!

Regards,
Maha

Hi,
I agree, it would be good to have a discussion on Afghanistan, looking at
how the situation is, how it could evolve and its impacts on markets.

Best regards.

On Mon, Aug 23, 2021 at 11:00 AM [Hidden email] <
[Hidden email]

Dear Maha,
I hope you are well.

Just like Federico, I have little documents to share right now (I left in
June), but loads of info to share. I remain available should you want to
schedule a meeting.

Bests,
Alessia

On Mon, 23 Aug 2021 at 12:02, [Hidden email] <
[Hidden email]

Dear Maha,
Thak you your initiative.
I have been working in Afghanistan in the last 10 years in many province
collaborating with local and Central government in agriculture project(
most EU funded) . Last time I was in Kabul was June 2021.
I worked most on VCs ( I studied almost all the most relevant Crops) but
in the last 2-3 years I included always LHH and market assessment in my
studies. I do not have many documents to share but I think I accumulated
lot of knowledge in case you might find it useful, I am available.

Best regards
Federico.

Hello MiC Community,

Hope you are doing well. With the rapid escalation of Afghanistan situation, I think it would be useful to make this discussion open to share any resources or updates to see how the situation affected the people lives and markets in the different regions, what are the most humanitarian needs and how the people handle them..etc. It will be great also to share information about the current responses for better information sharing.

Thank you for your cooperation!

Regards,
Maha Hayek